Welcome all, and Best wishes for a very successful 2008
I realize it’s been quite a while since I’ve been in touch with y’all but it has been a crazy beginning to the year 2008. In the first week of January we had a huge storm hit central California and we were without electricity for close to a week, without our DSL for close to 10 days, and without phone service for almost 2 weeks. I do believe that the DSL was the most severe loss. “Locals” will tell you that the storm was the worst they’ve seen here in over a hundred years. Can’t you just visualize the old miner going on in his craggy voice as he relates the story about the worst storm since ‘ought 3’—that would be 1903?
Yet through it all we managed to persevere– having generators, cell phones certainly did not hurt. Ultimately we purchased the wireless Internet service for the computers and then of course the very next day the service comes back on. Se la vie! We might be better prepared for the next storm but honestly I hope it doesn’t hit us as bad as this one did. As an example, we had over 10 trees down on our property alone and these are large trees; some 80 feet tall. Overall the local news networks stated there were hundreds and hundreds of trees down on the Monterey Peninsula. But clean up is well under way and so is the year; so we had best get to it.
Connecting with You
The most important thing that were going to be doing this year is to build and manage our database and with that in mind I would invite all of you to be certain to send us your e-mail address. Why? It is because as we send out our recommendations, you will be among the first to know what we are thinking. The early bird gets the worm—need I say more?
As usual, any other information you choose to send along would be greatly appreciated. I know people are very concerned about their privacy, and about not giving out too much information. I am one of those people so I certainly can appreciate anyone who has those concerns. We are extraordinarily careful with all of our information and we do not sell it to any other party. However, if you would include your state and perhaps your area is of investing interest, it would help us to better serve you.
I would also like to know what junior mining companies of which you hold an interest and perhaps some of the companies that you’re maintaining in your portfolios. If I discover a trend, there is a likelihood I may write up those one or two companies whose names keep popping up.
The Gift to the Gold Community
In the immediate future, I will be finishing up The 2008 Gift to the Gold Community. This is a reincarnation of an article that I’ve written for the last four or five years. It has always received a good deal of attention. I think this one is the best I’ve ever written primarily because of the quality of writers that are all in the top 10 list for 2008. Again if you have a favorite writer, by all means let me know and I’ll try and get in touch with their organization and add them next year or even perhaps some time during the current year.
The idea behind the gift is simply that there are some absolutely erudite and talented individuals whose material should be read and understood. Besides giving us excellent insights into what is occurring in the markets, they will also help us understand what is going on in the world at large; the geopolitical environment
I think we need to understand, and I’ve stated this repeatedly, that the information that we’re receiving from the mainstream press is severely compromised in terms of its accuracy. It seems to me that if you want to get to the bottom of the story, the real story, you need to be following people who have made it their life’s work to understand how these geopolitical pieces fit together.
It will come as no surprise that many of the same people have been on the list for three or four years and some of them have been on the list since its very beginning. Bill Murphy of Le Metropole Café charges for his service but he also is front and center on the Gold anti-trust action committee; or GATA. I bring up his name because recently he stated that he has gone from the outhouse to the penthouse. If you’ve ever had an inclination for the truth about gold, Bill has never led you down the wrong path and besides, it is a great value as he writes almost daily and I know of no one with perhaps the exception of James Turk who has his finger on the pulse of gold as well as Bill does. We have been GATA supporters for many years. if I’m not mistaken, I believe we have been on board almost since their inception. If you want to know the real deal about gold, look no further. I will also be reviewing folks such as the aforementioned James Turk, Jim Sinclair, Roger Wiegand, J. Taylor, Richard Russell, and of course, one of my favorites is Bill Buckler from The Privateer. Look for that article to be published relatively soon and I shall try and pick up the pace in terms of the companies and the players.
The Current Environment
The current investment environment is one that could easily give the average investor the “heebie-jeebies”. Currently it is January 22, 2008 and the markets have been pretty much in a free fall for the last week or so. But through it all, gold has held up quite well. I personally believe that it will continue to hold up as will silver. We have been talking about the strength of gold for the last three or four years but truly one can never pick the exact top or the exact bottom but one can certainly identify the trend. The trend in the case of the precious metals has been up. The trend of the junior mining stocks has been sideways and of course in some cases down and in other cases up. Through it all, I have been totally bullish on the precious metals, and because of a company called Golden Phoenix, I’ve been bullish on molybdenum.
The Overwhelming Question
I think the question that I’ve heard most frequently is “why haven’t the junior mining stocks participated in this recent run up in gold”? I think the answer really lies in the action of the senior indices and in the fact that most people, most investors have not been looking towards gold as a safe haven. However, I do believe that this is the year when that trend is going to start to change. It has been a long long haul for gold and silver investors but I think our day has finally arrived. Granted, it’s not going to be a cake walk from here on out but I think there’s a real strong possibility that we’ve turned the corner.
We must understand the fact that political and economic repercussions have yet to really come home to roost. That may sound strange after listening to that the structural damage wrought by the sub- prime mortgage collapse, the housing crisis and the bond debacle. But this is only the tip of the iceberg. No country can endlessly and wantonly create trillions of dollars of fiat garbage without paying the price at some point. As much as I appreciate America and the fundamental principles upon which she was founded, I feel we have deviated from the principles of our founding fathers. This in itself is most disturbing and is also a case of working together to discover a new path forward.
Inflation is going to be a very large part of our immediate financial future so we had best get used to the idea and we had best begin preparing for the challenges it is going to present. Don’t buy into the idea of three or 4% inflation—rather consider the idea that it may very well be three times that amount or 12%.
Getting our house in Order
It appears that the point is now here and we had best get our houses in order on a personal level. I realize that people on a fixed income, people trying to put children through college, and people just trying to get by don’t have a great many options. But one of the options that we do have is to begin here and now to try and take “little baby steps” towards building a sound financial future for ourselves. Gold and silver along with quality gold and silver stocks can be an excellent place from which to begin.
I won’t lie to you. I think there are going to be times when we are going to have to take some risks in order to achieve the rewards which we are seeking. This doesn’t mean that we have to go haul wild speculating our brains out but it does mean that we have to be able to put as little as $500 aside and put it into some speculative mining stocks which have a viable opportunity to double or triple. The idea is to then take that money and to double and triple it again using great discipline so as not to lose it all in one fell swoop. In that process we will all learn how the game works, how the big boys play it, and most importantly we will be going with the trend and not against it. Never forget that the trend is your friend. A cliché if I ever heard one but absolutely true nevertheless.
If one would have purchased the physical metals several years ago, one would have done pretty well as in a double or perhaps a triple on their investment. However, most people are looking to the junior mining companies for the leverage that they present and very few people have the temperament or the inclination to purchase and store the physical metals. There’s always the question of the safe deposit boxes and what will our government do in terms of confiscation and the rummaging through our safe deposit boxes when they become ever more desperate? Then there is always the question of what dealer should I use, and of course when to sell? These are all legitimate questions and ones that we will cover at some point in the not-too-distant future.
Conclusion
Some things change and some things always remaine the same. We have been building up to this point in America’s financial community for a very long time. Inflation, stagflation, recessions, and some rough times are immediately ahead. Don’t let anyone tell you differently. Don’t let the politicians crunch their numbers and come up with two and two equals eight. It just doesn’t work that way. The current political election process which we are all witnessing is no different in so far as fundamental reasons are concerned than any other election in the past. I have yet to hear any of them talk about the real issues this country faces. If truth be told, I don’t really believe that the Congress or the US executive branch has the capability of changing what they’ve screwed up for the past 30 years. They especially do not have the capability of changing it in three or four years.
I must step up to the plate and state for the record that any Clinton that would be elected would be a reenactment of a passé Administration. It will take generations to repair the damage that Bush Jr. did to this country. I believe that Bush Jr.’s administration was pretty much on mirrored image of Bush Sr.’s administration and certainly of his policies. The country simply cannot afford a similar mistake. We do need to change and I mean real change and more not going to get that by hiring the status quo once again.
I was originally excited about Ron Paul and I still like the man and many of his ideas. However, if one cannot run a vertically integrated campaign, how in heaven’s name is one going to be able to run the country? From what I could garner from talking with people close to that campaign, it was a free-for-all.
John Edwards is a man of integrity but I think the country is subliminally concerned about his courageous wife and the battle she is waging for her health. I’m certain most of us can relate to what this family is going through and I cannot help but admire John enormously.
Into a Corner
I realize that there are many among us who have been painted into a corner whether we like it or not due to the actions of our politicians. Many of us are angry—angry that an illegal immigrant can walk into a hospital and receive full medical benefits while we as American citizens have to put our houses and our jobs on the line in order to receive equal medical care. It’s enough to make one crazy. By the same token without those illegal Mexican immigrants, the country would stop on a dime. This is one of the enormous problems facing the country at this point because on one level those immigrants are keeping the country afloat and on another level those immigrants illegal as they may be are bankrupting this country. Something needs to be done and soon. I will tell you that it is absolutely amazing how much money is sent back to Mexico from these hard-working men and women away from their families and often times working for minimum wage. Of course, there are always times when they will be cheated by some unscrupulous employer who feels it necessary to take advantage.
One Last Hope
But there is still one item of real value which we can utilize to protect ourselves in these most uncertain of times. Of course, I am referring to gold and gold shares. If we take it one step further, I do believe there are still some quality junior mining companies that have the possibility of exponential gains in the short term. Stay tuned because while these times may be difficult and trying they also offer opportunity if we choose to see it.
I have no crystal ball but I have talked to the management of many of the companies I will be recommending and if they are advertising on our site it will be a de facto endorsement even though I don’t write them up immediately.
Read the Gift to the Gold Community which will be coming out very shortly. If you have the means try to subscribe to several of the letters. I will also try and group several of them together so it will give you a good cross-section of information if you only subscribe to one or two of these letters. Jim Sinclair of www.jsmineset.com is still one of the best deals going and he doesn’t charge a penny for the vast amounts of information he presents. He along with Monty and trader Dan, do an excellent job and I agree with a full 90% of what they are saying. Along with Jim, I think one would be remiss not to also be reading Bill Murphy and the GATA crew in conjunction with William Buckler of the Privateer. Just these three entities alone, will help you get on track. So keep an eye out for the Gift, pass it along to your friends and remember that all things are interconnected.
Until next time,
D. Stewart Armstrong
Consultant to the Gold Community
www.seacoast-consulting.com
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Disclosure and Disclaimer for www.seacoast-consulting.com : In the spirit of full disclosure, although D. Stewart Armstrong (proprietor), Seacoast Consulting, Seacoast Publishing, and/or www.seacoast-consulting.com (web site) are independent entities, they may be employed by any of the companies mentioned in full or in part on this site and/or in any of the articles posted on this site. D. Stewart Armstrong, Seacoast Consulting, Seacoast Publishing, and/or www.seacoast-consulting.com may own shares in any of the companies mentioned. Although the author is an independent analyst, he is also a paid consultant by the Junior Mining and Exploration Sector. The proprietor is a private investor in the precious metals markets. He is not a board qualified or licensed investment advisor. All material is deemed to be accurate and to have been gleaned from reliable sources in a timely fashion; but said material cannot be construed as being totally complete or absolute. Any forward looking statements must be considered as such and taken into account. Consequently, D. Stewart Armstrong and/or the aforementioned parties can take no responsibility for any investment decisions you make or the results thereof. The proprietor does not accept responsibility for any possible errors in calculations disseminated by any company he represents or in which he or the site is involved, nor does he or the site guarantee or insinuate great success or any level of investment results. Consider any and all recommendations as personal opinions on the part of the proprietor and the writers and analysts contributing to the site. It is highly recommended, and even insisted by the proprietor, that investors, individuals, and all interested parties, conduct their own due diligence before becoming involved in any investment or with the interests of any company mentioned. That process would include direct contact with the company to confirm any facts, opinions, or ideas represented by these companies in general or on any Company CD’s distributed and referred to in these articles. The proprietor would suggest the possibility of hiring a professional for advice or to employ a certified investment advisor before making any investment transactions. Again, please consider these articles as opinions and please understand that investing in Junior Mining Companies is a high-risk, high reward proposition and you must take full responsibility for your own actions because there is always the possibility of losing all or a portion of your investment capital. This disclaimer applies to all articles, advertisements, and writers applicable to this site and to any corresponding links to this site including all Email correspondences and communications, and all communications with both public and private entities utilizing any format. This disclaimer is applicable to all articles and communications published previously and to ones to be published in the future. We shall do our very best to place these disclaimers in locations that will be easily accessible to the reader but by the same token it is the readers responsibility to locate the disclaimers and read them.
Posted by D.Stewart Armstrong in Articles