January 27, 2008
Preface
I’ve been writing incarnations of this article for approximately four years now and it has always received a positive response from our readers. Please remember that I always like to hear from you and would like you to send me your email address and the state in which you reside. You’ll be the first to receive our recommendations, articles, and observations. This article happens to be one of my favorite endeavors because I believe I am doing some good by profiling writers, and analysts who I believe are very bright and are willing to tell us the truth.
I want to make it very clear as to why I write The Gift to the Gold Community. This is not about me, this is about you, about us, and more importantly it is about the collective good of America. Now that may sound very “highfalutin” but in actuality it is quite simple. The more people that really understand what is happening in the United States and the reasons for it, the more people who will be equipped to make more informed, intelligent decisions necessary to move our country forward over the next 10 years and beyond. It is my opinion that the last seven years have been an absolute disaster for America. It pains me to say this but we are at a juncture where we need to call a spade a spade and face reality. Politically, I am truly an independent with no party affiliation so partisan politics is not my thing. In fact, I think that our political system is in dire need of repair and according to the comments from many of our readers, I know it is a widely shared sentiment.
Ladies and Gentlemen; at some point it will be absolutely necessary to repair it because no House can stand divided, no family(or government) can endlessly spend more than it makes, and you cannot fool all of the people all of the time. There are certain unalterable rules to the universe. The entities who I am recommending to you have some ideas on the subject although they will speak to you in practical terms; not in political ones. Most importantly, they will speak to you in terms of common sense.
Please remember, that as we are engaged in this current political process, a President can only do so much. Perhaps he can positively exploit the “bully pulpit” but we need Congress to step up to the plate, protect and defend the US Constitution, while realizing that there is more to life than being re-elected, especially at the cost of sacrificing our country for their own particular agendas of power and more power. For instance, remember that only Congress has the power to wage war and so with that in mind I shall allow you to draw your own conclusions regarding Iraq and Afghanistan. So, please don’t get overly excited about the presidential race. You want to “make a difference”? (I must admit to not being fond of that particular saying!) You make a difference by realizing that all politics are local and that when you vote for your state senators and representatives, you are making a much larger impact on our political system than by voting in a presidential election. My personal opinion that is that the presidential campaigns may be glamorous, but it is “down in the trenches” on the state and local levels where the real work, the real good, and the real damage is done. Think of the entire political process in terms of your home town and Congress!
Time is precious and there is so much to try and resurrect regarding the goodness of America, its founding principles, and the decency of its citizens. The way we do it is via truth and the implantation of common sense. The people who I am recommending to you certainly believe in telling us the truth backed up by a large dose of common sense! Our country is currently in a legitimate crisis (financial and political) and very few people, relative to the total population, understand the nature of it. I think the best thing that we can do for each other and for the country is to share the message of what is really occurring so as not to continue frolicking down the path that is ultimately going to lead to our own destruction. Is that too dramatic? It is not meant to be nor is it meant to scare you or to be too much over the top. In actuality, it is simply the truth and we can’t bury our heads in the sand and if we continue on with the status quo, the Country will toast. If you can put the economic, political, and geopolitical puzzle together on your own, you will see common sense dictates the necessity for dramatic change against a backdrop of integrity and the moral high ground. The intensity of the current presidential campaign makes it abundantly clear the most Americans are hungry for change; subsequently each is hungry for the truth! In their heart of hearts, educated-caring Americans realize that this charade for the presidency is only the tip of the (problematic) iceberg.
Specializing in Precious Metals
I specialize in observing and reporting on gold, silver, and their corresponding junior mining companies. However we need to really understand that the precious metals are more than just investment vehicles. Yes, we can all make money with these entities and especially now; although I think some would actually argue that point after reviewing their portfolio statements for the last several quarters–at least on the junior mining level–but this too shall pass. The most frequent question on the lips of every gold bull is why are the mining stocks, and especially the junior mining stocks, not participating in this sector when gold itself is well past $900 an ounce.
The Overwhelming Question
This is really not the time or the place to address that issue. However, let me just say this about that. The crisis in America has at its foundation the violation of every fundamental financial principle known to mankind and this is part and parcel of what is occurring. People do not understand gold nor do they understand the reasons why they should own it apart from the fact that they may make a few dollars. Consequently, no excitement in gold equates to no excitement in the mining shares. Add to that the fact that many are confused by crazy-dysfunctional financial headline stories that change on a daily basis and it is easy to see why people are confused and standing pat. When sufficient numbers of people understand that it is not too late to become involved in the precious metals, we will see an appreciation in the gold shares. In the interim I would counsel that quality is the word of the day. The people who I am going to recommend to you in this Gift to the Gold Community are people of quality and they will be offering you qualitative ideas on geopolitical, financial, and political matters.
Is Gold Still the best Gauge of Inflation?
I would like to add that it is important to realize that historically, gold has been used as a barometer to gauge inflation and as a flight to safety when economic conditions became severely negative within the local, national, and international communities. The powers that be (and they would include the major banking interests, the governments, and the people and entities that support fiat currencies), have discovered avenues to conceal what has been occurring in our country. Job number one has been to keep the excitement that gold could produce to a very minimum. As such, we have gold at $900 an ounce, up from about $450 an ounce over the last five years and yet no one really knows about it. When I say no one, I am really referring to about 90% of this nation’s population. Now that gold is well over $900 an ounce, I think that most people who are not seasoned in these matters believe that gold is beyond their reach. Nothing could be further from the truth. There are a plethora of excellent junior mining companies that will one day participate in this gold move. Many of us have thought that this participation would have occurred two or three years ago and yet it has not. The reason it has not is simply because the powers that be and the press, particularly the financial press, have made significantly more money promoting “paper vehicles” than talking about the precious metals. Even now when the run-up has been so historic, I still don’t have a sensing that they are telling the gold story. This is about to change because “they” simply don’t have the gold or the firepower to control it much longer.
Finally, it is important to realize that the press really does take their marching orders from the existing power structure. These avenues of control have been significantly enhanced over the past seven years. As an outside example, remember when the Iraq War had just begun? Anyone who opposed these conflicts (Iraq and Afganistan) were swiftly branded anti-patriotic–especially in the news media. The higher the profile of the opposition the more severe the retribution against them! Now a full 70% of the US is against this war.
The Stealth Bull Market in Gold and Silver
And so we call this a stealth bull market in gold. It keeps moving up against the odds, climbing the proverbial wall of worry, and yet the average American doesn’t have a clue. (Incidentally, a fiat money is a type of currency issued by governments as legal tender, the value of which is based solely on decree or law rather than on actual coin {gold or silver} or backed by something tangible—it is an IOU—{many would argue} nothing. The nothing usually comes later as in 5-30 years later after the politicians have “had their way with it”—usually creating infinite amounts of it via computers and not through producing anything of tangible worth. Down through the centuries no government fiat currency has ever survived!)
Governments and banks control fiat money. Over the last umpteen years they have been controlling gold and the price of it. Many of you know about GATA, the Gold Anti Trust Action committee, headed up by Bill Murphy and Chris Powell. These two guys have been the warriors on the front lines; they’ve taken it upon themselves to establish the patterns and the connections between gold and “the establishment”. They’ve enjoyed a modicum of success but it has not come without a cost. It is a cost within their lives and in the lives of the people who have supported them.
People, for heaven’s sakes this is America– at least it used to be. It should not be going down like this. But then again, by the same token, this is America and this is the way it has been going down—being ever more exacerbated on the down side by special interests, or lobbyists, and by politicians who would take away your freedoms under the guise of protecting you. We don’t need protecting from outside sources, we need protecting from our own government. Our government is now beginning a new process whereby we will be electing a new president. Be very careful for what you wish because what you see is not necessarily what you will get.
Ten Heads are Better than OneI am a firm believer that two heads are better than one, and therefore like all “bigger is better” Americans–extrapolating that to the next level would argue that 10 heads are even more better than one; more funner, too. So in this particular instance the sum is greater than the whole of its parts. Now, we are not all going to be able to go out and spend $1000 on newsletters for the year even though I think it’s a great idea. Time and economic reality shapes our decisions regarding this matter. I’ll try and list these letters in several groups of three so that perhaps depending upon your level of interest, understanding and sophistication regarding the markets and specifically the junior mining markets; you’ll have a solid point of departure. These 10 letters are alternatives to the mainstream media and as such, become very valuable. Most of them would argue on the side of gold and silver and the benefit that the precious metals complex brings to a stable monetary system. Most of them will tell you that gold is real money and should be used for wealth preservation. The one thing that I want you to remember is that gold is over $900 US an ounce and silver is very close to $17.00 an ounce. In terms of 1980’s inflation-adjusted dollars (when the last major bull market in the precious metals was at its highs), gold should be around $2500.00 US an ounce and silver should be somewhat north of $200 US an ounce.
I also need to mention that several of the letters such as Roger Wiegands’ and Enrico Orlandinis’ are somewhat oriented towards the futures markets. However, I believe that these two individuals offer much more than recommendations in the derivative markets. Their common sense observations are worth the price of admission, even if you don’t execute a single trade.
I’ve read a lot of newsletters in my day which is to say that I’ve kissed a lot of frogs. I ain’t met a whole bunch of princes. But these folks who I will again refer to you, are princes in my book. Why? I think mostly it’s because I feel that these people have a solid core of integrity and they are smart as a whip. I would say that most of them are absolutely experts in their own field.
I also want to make one thing very clear. I receive nothing in terms of commissions or compensation for recommending these individuals or their letters.
I think if we take this information that these people put out on a collective basis we will have a fairly good idea of what is really occurring across the land and across the planet. We will have some idea as to how to financially protect ourselves. However, I also realize that time, or the lack thereof, is the key issue for most people. I’m certain that we all are limited by the amount of time that we can spend reading. The Internet is an excellent place to garner information but it’s also a place where one can pick up misinformation by the bucketful if one is not careful. I am also certain that there are a plethora of excellence writers and analysts that could also be listed here. I think a good many of them might be found on www.kitco.com. I know many of you go there to check on the gold price and it’s an excellent place to pick up the ideas of some excellent writers. You’ll find some very familiar names in the list below and they have appeared year after year because of the quality and the consistency of information and integrity that they’ve exemplified over the years.
The 2008 Gift to the Gold Community
The following is the top ten list in an abbreviated format with the web sites included
Random order!
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The Privateer - Bill Buckler
The Privateer, headed up by Bill Buckler is based out of Australia. “Our analysis begins where your information ends”. His letter has prospered by word of mouth. In my opinion, there is no better geopolitical letter on the planet. Simply put, I believe that the Privateer should be the one letter to which you subscribe. Put another way, this is the one site, the one letter, you don’t want to be without and don’t forget to include the weekly gold commentary in your order.
The reason for this is that we need to understand what is happening in the world if we want to know what is occurring in our own back yard. Bill offers a weekly summary on gold every Saturday and every other week, he will offer you 12 pages of succinct and accurate information that I personally cannot do without. I will also admit to you that sometimes I have to force myself to read it because invariably, it is not what I want to hear. Nevertheless, I have found very few flaws in his thinking or his reporting. His grasp of international historical relationships is vast and he relates the truth in a no hold bars fashion. If there is one letter, you need as an investor, it is The Privateer. The cost is reasonable and he offers a trial subscription.
Their Mission: “We are a service orientated teaching forum that uses the daily market as its text and blackboard. We comment, but every commentary carries a lesson. The Spin really does stop here”. Jim Sinclair
Jim founded the Sinclair Group of Companies (1977), which offered full brokerage services in stocks, bonds, and other investment vehicles. The companies, which operated branches in New York , Kansas City, Toronto , Chicago , London and Geneva , were sold in 1983. From 1981 to 1984, Mr. Sinclair served as a Precious Metals Advisor to Hunt Oil and the Hunt family for the liquidation of their silver position as a prerequisite for the $1 billion loan arranged by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volker.
I think Jim is revered by a great many gold bulls who look to him and his team, (including Dan Norini) because he is honest and really does appear to have the best interests of his readership at heart. This is a “free” service–by all means sign up for his commentary. His team has also put together a CD on Technical analysis (TA). I believe the cost is a nominal $45US. By all means, endeavor to acquire a copy if they are still available.
Dow Theory Letters-Richard Russell
The veritable Richard Russell, known as Dick to his friends, has been in the newsletter writing business for over 50 years. I think that says it all–if you want experience tempered with life enhancing metaphorical stories–read Dick. He has only become more knowledgeable as he has become a bit older. He writes on the markets, and life, on a daily basis. He puts out a monthly letter but it pales in comparison to his daily commentary which is worth the price of admission. He puts me to shame with his work ethic. Absorb half or even a quarter of his wisdom and you’ll be ahead of 90% of the investing public.
I believe in fact that his newsletter and his subscribers, keep him young.
The cost is about $250 a year so it’s not inexpensive; but in terms of its overall content, it is a bargain at three times the price.
Le Metropole Café-Bill Murphy
“Where gold investors come for crucial market insight– Welcome to Le Metropole Cafe, a place where Gold Investors, commodities market experts, and top financial minds from all over the world meet, discuss, and publish their insights on the world of gold investing.”
If you are a gold investor or interested in gold and silver, this is the one site for you. Bill has been pounding the drum for seven years on why gold and governements are like oil and water. No one, but no one, has their finger on the daily pulse of gold like Bill Murphy and his team. He offers a complimentary two week trial subscription. I highly recommend him and I support the findings of GATA–the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee.
Bill is passionate in his approach and yet how can one not be passionate when fighting for liberty. He and Chris Powell have been doing exactly that. All gold bulls and people interested in free markets owe them a debt of gratitude. (Buckler-Sinclair-Murphy have to be at the top of my list!)
The Freemarket Gold & Money Report– James Turk
James Turk has a reputation that precedes him. He has been analyzing gold and the financial markets for a good many years. The Free Market Gold and Money Report is an informative investment newsletter that analyzes the precious metals and financial markets. It provides investors with a useful and informed international perspective on major monetary and investment matters. Each letter provides specific advice, with detailed by and sell recommendations supported by long term and short term charts. Topics include gold, silver, a stock markets, bonds, commodities, and Crencies.
FGMR has published 20 letters annually since 1987. E-mail delivery of the newsletter is available. Currently it is in an e-mail only format.
This is one of those letters that has been around for a very long time and the reason for it is to the quality of the information that James presents. I like it because he always seems to get to the crux of the matter in a very short period of time. It’s usually about four pages long and there are several recommendations in each letter. Consider this one carefully.
The kinds of stocks and other trades you’ll find in Trader Tracks are ideal if you are an investor willing to take a bit more risk so that you can achieve substantially higher and faster returns. In fact, these are trades that could easily bring you 50%, 100% or more in gains in just weeks or months…not years. However, always remember that the potential for a higher reward carries with it a higher risk.
So if you have set aside a portion of your portfolios specifically for this purpose, and understand that when you take on more risk there is more potential for a loss, this could be the newsletter for you.
Trader Rog always treats his trade recommendations like he is investing his own money, and he is very cautious with his own money. That means his trade strategies always include very tight stop-loss recommendations—often no more than a percent or two—so if a stock or futures trade that he recommends should go down, you’ll get out with a very minimal loss.
It is possible to download a trial issue of Trader Tracks.
I want to tell you that I appreciate Roger’s work not so much for these specific recommendations, but more for the specific common sense ideas that he presents to his readers, so even if you never implement one single trade, I feel his commentary is well worth the cost. Now, if you would like to get your feet wet with some futures trading, I would think that Roger will guide you as well as anyone. But again the trading of Futures carry with it a substantial risk of losing all of your capital-just remember that. If you cannot accept that fact don’t even open up an account!
Mining Stocks-Jay Taylor
This is Jay Taylor’s Gold and Technology Stocks newsletter. Jay has been around for a long time and has a loyal following. again, even though he makes specific recommendations pertaining to stocks and the junior mining and technology sector, I think the real value with Jay, as it is with Roger, lies in the fact that they offer a big picture scenario. Anyway you cut it, investing in the junior mining sector is not for the a faint of heart, but Jay makes it understandable and even enjoyable.
I think you really have to understand that Jay and his staff do their very best in performing their own due diligence before recommending a company. There are many many companies that would just love to get a recommendation from Jay.
Jay attends many of the shows such as the Cambridge House Shows in Vancouver, and is quite available to subscribers. I’ve known Jay for many years on a somewhat personal basis and I have to say that he is a man of integrity. Win or lose, you can’t ask for much more than that.
DTAnalysis -Enrico Orlandini
Enrico Orlandini is also a big picture kind of guy and in this particular instance he has a big following. He publishes his letter in English, Spanish, and French. Even though I would say he specializes in futures markets, he offers insights that will benefit just about everyone who has any interest in investing. For those who do trade futures, he takes you by the hand and guides you through the maze on a step by step basis. Again, I caution, that futures are not for everyone and if you do begin to trade these vehicles, start on a very small basis. It might not even be a bad idea to “paper trade”.
Enrico’s site is informative and he also relies quite heavily on charts.
The Golden Jackass-Jim Willie
The golden jackass is designed to inform and instruct in the complex ways of gold, currencies, bonds, interest rates,
stocks, commodities, futures, derivatives, and the world economy, with no respect shown for inept bankers and
economists, whose policies and practices contribute toward the slow motion degradation, if not destruction,
of the financial world ~ Jim Willie CB, aka “The Golden Jackass”
Okay, don’t even ask! I will tell you this. Jim does not suffer fools lightly. That being said, he is brash but erudite, to the point and yet detailed. If you really want to get into the nuances of the financial markets and especially the banking entities, and the specifics as to why this Country is in the state we are in, look no further than Jim Willie. He will tell you exactly what he believes is occurring and most of the time it is not a very pretty picture. Nevertheless, I quite admire his work and believe it can serve as an enormous benefit not only to gold bulls, but to investors at large.
The International Forecaster-Bob Chapman
www.theinternationalforcaster.com
What is the international forecaster? It is a compendium of information on business, finance, economics, and political issues worldwide. In its present form, it has been published since 1991. Bob Chapman might be considered by some to be rather controversial. However, I’ve always found his work to be honest and to the point. I certainly don’t think you’ll call him a (political) party man after you read some of his work. I think if you get in touch with him, he will send you a complimentary issue by e-mail and you can make up your own mind.
Conclusion
There you have it. It has been a challenge to offer such a limited list but I believe it to be an excellent one if you’re interested in the precious metals complex, in the geopolitical arena, or in how so many financial elements are interconnected.
I promised you a few groups. I think they should all begin with The Privateer, Bill Murphy’s-LeMetropole Cafe, and Jim Sinclair. Then add Russell and James Turk. Another group would be the first three along with Jay Taylor and Roger Wiegand. Jim Willie and Russell along with Bob Chapman will give you a good perspective. If you are into high risk — high reward scenarios, consider Wiegand and Orlandini. But if you’re interested in gold, they should all begin with Murphy, Sinclair, and Buckler.
We’ll keep in touch and please do add your name to our Email list on the top of our site: www.seacoast-consulting.com
Until Next Time
D. Stewart Armstrong
Consultant to the Junior Mining Community
Seacoast-Consulting Disclaimer
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Posted by D.Stewart Armstrong in Articles