by Jim Willie CB April 1, 2009
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Jim Willie CB, editor of the “HAT TRICK LETTER”
Perhaps it was a grand error of judgment to host the G20 Meeting in London. The epicenter of the financial hegemony, corruption, hidden agency influence, and financial market destruction has clearly been the United States and the United Kingdom working in tandem. So great risk comes with the hosting of this meeting in London. The British Empire, aka Great Britain, is the site of the most devastating economic and banking ruin in a century, on a scale much larger than Iceland, but with a certain hand in the Iceland downfall. Millions of British citizens are angry, worried, and justifiably so. Their economists, bankers, and government leaders have presided over at best a severe national decline that must withstand diverse reform and reconstruction, and over at worst a national failure of state that must endure a collapse before any conceivable reconstruction. The decline if not collapse in the UK seemed for a time to lag that of the US, but lately events have accelerated inside the harrowed United Kingdom. The United States has the advantage of just printing trillion$ and floating about for a bit much like a derelict vessel with feigned movement!
Certainly it was a grand error of judgment at the February Davos Global Economic Forum for President Obama not to attend. He used extremely bad judgment in sending TinyTim Geithner as his minion envoy, the Treasury Secretary who bears Goldman Sachs stripes, and likely GSax branded skivvies. Obama took harsh criticism for skipping an opportunity to meet with certain heads of state in attendance, key banking and industrial leaders. He could have met Russian leaders Putin and Medvedev, who truly stole the entire Davos show. My guess is that Obama was deeply intimidated at the Davos prospect, was busy assembling a staff, but had no choice now. The chorus of criticism, if not revolt against the US$, has grown deafening. The US$-based global financial structure is broken, without any doubt irrevocably. The last to notice are the USGovt and US banking stewards, who are busily looting still.
There are 20 members of the G20 organization. These include the finance ministers and central bank governors of the following countries: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States. The 20th member is the European Union, which is represented by the rotating presidency and its European Central Bank. In addition to these 20 members, the following forums and institutions participate in G20 Meetings: International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Intl Monetary & Financial Committee, Development Committee of the IMF & World Bank. For the past decade or more, it is well understood and well documented how the IMF and World Bank are each riddled with US security agency non-bankers, complete with associated covert activity. Some accuse them of routine operations that include collusion, kidnapping, murder, but all for the benefit of the United States and its power structure. These espionage accusations are not idle, but well documented. See “Confessions of an Economic Hit Man” by John Perkins (2004). In it, he provides account of his career that included his hire by an alleged NSA liaison to become a self-described economic hit man. My first exposure to Perkins was in 2005 when he published chapter by chapter, portions of his book in magazine format. My reading centered on the NSA in Saudi Arabia, to further their acceptance of the USTreasury Bond and USDollar as official Petro-Dollar payment. That Saudi-US contract has been a cornerstone of the US-based global foundation for a generation. It apparently required enforcement. Of course, for the greater good.
In the words of the publisher for Perkins, “Covertly recruited by the United States National Security Agency and on the payroll of an international consulting firm, he traveled the world, to Indonesia, Panama, Ecuador, Colombia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and other strategically important countries… Perkins reveals the hidden mechanics of imperial control behind some of the most dramatic events in recent history, such as the fall of the Shah of Iran, the death of Panamanian president Omar Torrijos, and the US invasions of Panama and Iraq.” Perkins has been remarkably open, vocal, and detailed. He coined the term ‘Economic Hit Man’ coyly. The US security agencies apparently tolerate him, although his promulgated information is quite ugly, embarrassing, and steeped in both controversy and corruption. Perkins describes the role of an Economic Hit Men as follows: “Economic hit men (EHMs) are highly paid professionals who cheat countries around the globe out of trillions of dollars. They funnel money from the World Bank, the US Agency for International Development (USAID), and other foreign aid organizations into the coffers of huge corporations and the pockets of a few wealthy families who control the planet’s natural resources. Their tools included fraudulent financial reports, rigged elections, payoffs, extortion, sex, and murder. They play a game as old as empire, but one that has taken on new and terrifying dimensions during this time of globalization.” My March Hat Trick Letter includes an account of the IMF hit performed against Indonesia, with the counsel of TinyTim Geithner, one decade ago. The Pacific nation suffered severe damage from their experience with the IMF, enough that all Asia actively avoids the IMF like plague.
Wikipedia is hardly a pure factual source of unbiased information, since in recent years it too contains a slant in favor of the power center that wields its many weapons. Nevertheless, in this light, Wikipedia contains the following descriptive passage. “According to his book, Perkins’ function was to convince the political and financial leadership of underdeveloped countries to accept enormous development loans from institutions like the World Bank and USAID. Saddled with huge debts they could not hope to pay, these countries were forced to acquiesce to political pressure from the United States on a variety of issues. Perkins argues in his book that developing nations were effectively neutralized politically, had their wealth gaps driven wider and economies crippled in the long run. In this capacity Perkins recounts his meetings with some prominent individuals, including Graham Greene and Omar Torrijos.”
These many G20 nations are all too familiar with the hardball games played by the IMF and World Bank. They keenly have observed for the last seven months some historical events in WashingtonDC and New York City. They must be aghast at the parade of funding for failed companies, fraudulent bonds, and hidden black holes of credit derivatives. They must be aghast at the parade of criminal fraud cases, led by Madoff, but also implied by the entire charade of the 911 events. They must be aghast at the parade of Wall Street henchmen still in charge of dispensing USGovt funds, even though their culpability seems obvious to all except the other henchmen who continue to sit in regulatory offices and law enforcement offices. So the G20 country representations finally have an opportunity to jam the works on the revolving doors of the global financial machinery. In my view, this G20 Meeting is a global financial turning point of historical implications and importance. Creditor nations sense deep risk of loss from their giant savings accounts, as the risk lingers during continued US power positioning. It marks the beginning of a magnificent change, one to topple the US-UK hegemony that has been inflicted upon the world for almost a generation.
USDOLLAR STATUS QUO GONE
The initial comments and press conference so far at this early preliminary point do not impress anyone. UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown and US President Barack Obama initiated events with a press conference. Another between Obama and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev is in progress. So far, the statements by Obama seem trivial but laced in words to acknowledge the severity of the situation. Obama has stated that the US will listen and learn, but not pass up the opportunity to lead. He seems unaware that US leadership has failed before, during, and after the crisis began. His body language to me looked nervous, defensive, and out of his league. To date, most US-based stimulus, rescue, nationalization, and funding has been confiscated and directed toward the precise perpetrators. US syndicates remain beneficiaries and administrators, while regulators and law enforcement chase advocates of free markets. Worse, the negligent, responsible, and corrupt remain in charge within the US Dept Treasury, as representatives from monoliths Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan themselves. Reform is impossible with these people still in charge. Nothing has changed on the power structure inside the USGovt, nor the controlled funnel of hundreds of billion$ in funds. The US president does not seem to understand that the global financial system designed atop the USDollar has broken irretrievably, and must be scrapped, not adjusted. For several months, the US Federal Reserve has been doubling duty as a virtual US banking system. For the past several years, a Shadow Banking System has operated without regulatory oversight, which is so deeply engrained with corruption that one cannot adequately describe its depth of depravity to commoners. Yet the US president acts as though the US remains in the dominant position in global finance, when the entire world has rejected its catbird seat post. THE UNITED STATES NO LONGER SITS IN THE PREMIER POSITION. That is precisely why so much conflict has come and will continue to come. The G20 London Meeting is a funeral.
Why is the G20 Meeting a turning point? First of all because the US$-based global financial structure is broken. In plain words, the USDollar is totally broken as the global reserve currency, fully discredited, and the anchor dragging down the national banking systems in scores of countries. Also, because the Elite G7 or G8 Meetings, where the banking power has been greedily and maliciously and jealously guarded, is replete with bank leaders whose countries are crippled by insolvent banks and outsized national debts. Who owns the largest portion of the G8 national debts? The G20 countries, the developing nations, the upstarts who up to now have owned zero voice in global banking, PERIOD! Imagine a bankruptcy hearing where the creditor (guy who owns the debt) does not have a seat at the bankruptcy court, has no attorney to argue on its behalf, and must listen to rigged outcomes from a rigged game. The global forces toward deep change have never been greater. Thus a turning point. Creditors have the option of simply refusing to purchase any more USTreasury Bond debt. To a great extent, that is what is occurring right now. The US responded last week, as its Federal Reserve announced $1050 billion in monetized USTreasury Bond and USAgency Mortgage Bond purchases. At least $1 trillion will be printed for monetized bond purpose each and every quarter from here onward, as is my forecast. The USGovt will destroy the credibility of the USDollar, but at least offer lifeblood to the crippled USEconomy, at the cost of upcoming price inflation. The United Kingdom has no such privilege. They suffered an important Gilt Bond failed auction last week, one which brought great embarrassment upon them.
Last week, China was highlighted at turning the global USDollar tables. They have begun to displace the US$ within their domestic banking system, in favor of the Chinese yuan. Actually, they will soon be issuing Chinese Govt debt securities denominated in yuan currency. Doing so involves wave after wave of conversion of USTBond securities into cash, then conversion further in to Yuan Debt securities, which still need a new name. How about Dragon Bonds for a name??? The Chinese will then wear and presumably use the great currency boot, since all economies that wish to purchase Chinese products must purchase Chinese Govt bonds!!!
The Chinese are also leading a movement to create an Emergency Fund for the Assn of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), one which will assist in defense of any hotmoney attacks against a smaller Asian nation. In 1997, the Asian Meltdown was triggered by hotmoney attacks waged against Thailand and South Korea. My personal belief is that the Emergency Fund will blossom into a pan-Asian Regional Bond Fund for economic development. The Asian-only fund will essentially serve as a gigantic regional savings account, free from Western control and pressures, independent from Western currency risk, and operate as a regional economic development fund.
The latest big currency news is between the central banks of China and Argentina. They reached an agreement for a three-year, $10 billion currency swap, disclosed by the Chinese Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan. One can rest assured that their USTreasury Bonds will supply the funds. The move follows swap accords between China and Indonesia, South Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Belarus. The agreement broadens Argentina’s access to foreign currency reserves in order to achieve stability. Argentina was excluded last autumn 2008 from the USDollar Swap Facility program created by the USFed for emerging markets, which were designed to aid Brazil and Mexico. Watch Venezuela and Iran be next for Chinese swap stations. One can conclude that China is expanding its stations globally for creating the Chinese yuan as a global reserve currency in competition with the USDollar. See the Bloomberg story (CLICK HERE).
Strange but meaningful additional challenges have come, these centered upon the Intl Monetary Fund. For years, the IMF has granted loans denominated not in USDollars but in Special Drawing Rights, which often function within various currency denominations, if not a basket of such currencies. The SDR formally is an international reserve asset already in usage. The SDR has been put in focus, if not under the microscope lately. Russia has formally suggested that the IMF be used to establish a new global currency system, to replace the defunct and broken USDollar system, and to use the SDRights as a new formal basket for global banking and commercial settlements. My belief is that Russia has used the concept as a straw man, just to place emphasis away from the USDollar. Once accepted, the concept can morph to another new currency suddenly. China has endorsed the SDR concept raised by Russia as well, to gain credibility.
My view has been consistent for months. Unless and until the foreign creditor nations distance themselves from a US$-based banking and commercial system, they run enormous risks. Their banking system, their financial markets, their economies, their standard of living, even their political stability, will all remain at chronic heightened risk. Alternatives are extraordinarily difficult, challenging, and daunting to design, construct, and implement. A system built after World War II was perverted in profound manner when in 1971 Nixon abrogated the Bretton Woods Accord in a single betrayal stroke. That maneuver was one of the most important violations of a treaty in modern history. It declared the United States as global financial dictator, enforced by a powerful USMilitary, aided by a large strong economy. It perversely invited all major economic nations of the world to join in managing free money off a printing press, of course with inherent risk.
CREDITORS DEMAND BANK POWER
For many years recently, the G20 Meeting has served as a forum for paying mere lipservice to the raft of foreign creditor nations. They have been enlisted by the G7 and G8 countries to continue to purchase USTreasury Bonds, UK Gilts, even German Bunds. They have been invited to invest in US, British, and European companies, and to become partners in major international commodity supply corporations, including energy firms. HOWEVER, THESE EMERGING NATIONS, THESE CREDITOR NATIONS, THESE SMALLER LESS POWERFUL NATIONS, WHICH COINCIDENTALLY DO NOT HAVE MILITARY FORCES OF THEIR OWN, HAVE NO GLOBAL BANKING POWER, HAVE NEVER HAD ANY GLOBAL BANKING POWER, BUT NOW ARE DEMANDING GLOBAL BANKING POWER. Such is the revolution triggered in London this week.
For the last decade, China has been given an insult at G7 and G8 Meetings of finance ministers. They have been guests, who essentially sit in the hallway quietly until invited to enter for briefing sessions. The largest creditor nation in the world must sit in the hall while debtor bankers make decisions, issue orders, change structural procedures, and pretend to be in charge. Never in financial history have debtors remained in power, and this is no exception.
Creditor nations demand a more solid reliable global reserve currency, or currencies. They demand some hard asset component to the new reserve currency to be installed, like one backed by a basket that includes at least gold and crude oil. This would be sufficient to lift the gold price substantially, far above its current range, and far higher than a mere $1000 per ounce. The Chinese are the clear spearhead, uninhibited by US threats. The crowning blow against the USDollar supremacy will come when Persian Gulf nations install a new hard asset currency. At that time, one quarter of the world will pay for crude oil in a hard asset currency with a gold component. That is a spike in the heart for the USDollar founded in a unipolar world. The G20 Meeting intends to make the statement that the unipolar world is dead on the financial stage. That is their agenda. The US agenda is to preserve the system through reform.
US MUST ACCEPT ROLE AS DEBTOR
The clear challenge facing the G20 Meeting is to bring awareness to the United States that the system is broken, that the US is no longer dictating policy, and that the US must integrate many more countries into important global banking bodies. However, much bigger tasks come. The United States must accept that the USDollar can no longer function as before, cannot serve as the primary and only global reserve currency, and must share reserve currency status with other regionally crucial currencies. The new multi-polar currency world must be hatched and launched. Defiance and stubbornness by the USGovt can no longer be tolerated. The United States admits to operating a Shadow Banking System that is abhorrent to any credible or justifiable system. THE JIG IS UP!!! If the USGovt does not cooperate with alternative global reserve currency usage, then it will be bypassed, with associated cost. That cost will be lost respect, lost creditor cooperation, and certain economic consequences within the USEconomy. If not careful and cooperative, the US will find itself increasingly isolated, which is precisely my forecast. This direction is consistent with a shove down the staircase into the Third World, where credit shortages and supply shortages and poverty persist.
The quintessential problem, plainly stated, is the United States Govt leaders and officials insist on sitting apart from the debtor nations. They must join the debtors, and be treated in similar fashion. They must accept terms dictated to them. They must accept and endure a much lower standard of living. They must institute policies to rebuild the industrial base of the USEconomy. They must write off trillion$ in bad debt, including some USTreasury debt. They must liquidate failed banks and corporations that are not in the least functional or competitive. They must redirect priorities away from military and defense, and toward capital formation, industrial production, and job creation, even if initially at prison facilities. The entire economic structure and financial structure has suffered a death experience, one not properly acknowledged. In my view, the US banking system died in September 2008, never to be revived from its terminal insolvent state. In my view, the USEconomy suffered a death experience, but with a lagged time period. We are witnessing the death now. Its downward spiral is unmistakable. Each month shows worse data than the previous. The degree of doctoring data has escalated to unseen levels, like with seasonality adjustment that amplify raw data many-fold, not just many percent.
My analysis has frequently described over the last two to three years the deep risk of internal dynamics called vicious cycles with nasty feedback loops. We are witnessing them now in full force. The bank losses have not ended, not even close. Prime mortgages are defaulting. Commercial mortgages have finally begun to default. Job cuts, home foreclosures, and retail shutdowns result in feedback loops. The underlying millstone remains US housing prices, down a record 19% in January. The jobless rate is 17% if one counts those without jobs. An expected 125k retail shops are expected to shut down in 2009. Aid to mortgage holders on Main Street stands at a trickle. The bankers must prevent revelations of trillion$ in mortgage bond fraud and counterfeit, so the mortgage assistance is mostly talk. And Geithner wants the power to kill whichever financial firms he sees fit. Things are careening downhill. The USDollar deserves no respect. Gold deserves it instead. Foreign creditors harbor growing gold accounts and greatly dislike what the US does to suppress its price as it continues to hold it in contempt.
GOLD, THE USDOLLAR & MINING STOCKS
The USDollar DX index has been struggling again. After the major news announcement about the $1050 billion in US$-based bond monetization, the buck fell hard. Unless foreign currency rivals do the same, and on as large a scale, the US$ will be vulnerable. My forecast is for the US$ to monetize its debt much more than any other government and associated central bank, an order of magnitude more. Surely the British, Swiss, Japanese, and Germans will continue to stimulate and rescue, even monetize some debt, but nothing will compare to the magnitude of the USGovt debt being monetized. We are talking about fullbore pure printing press activity. Notice that the 86 level offers resistance from both past selling pressure and the 50-day moving average. A second (double top) failure erodes confidence to a great extent. Each hefty decline from the top (in orange ovals) inflicts great technical damage, undercutting US$ confidence. Confidence reigns supreme in the age of fiat currency without basis, now bone dry. Notice also that the moving averages in blue, red, green are finally flattening out, indicative of a topping pattern. The Gold-Dollar linkage has been somewhat vague and tenuous in recent weeks. However, if the USDollar index falls, the benefit to the gold price will be unmistakable. My expectation is that after a brief period when other nations announce their rescues and stimulus plans in detail, and the US falls further into the abyss, a panic will begin to sell the US$-based assets, a panic that will turn into an utter rout. The erosion and exposure process has entered full swing.
Posted by D.Stewart Armstrong in Articles